Accurately assessing probability is the key to successful practical magic. Without it, you run the risk of not choosing your target correctly, enchanting for the wrongs things or expecting them to show up at the wrong time.
We don’t like to do it because we generally don’t like math and we want to get on with all those candles and spirits and shit.
And this is fine. Our caveman brains aren’t built for assessing probability, they’re built to see things that aren’t really there. (On the off chance it’s a tiger lurking behind a tree.)
But this doesn’t get us off the hook.
Either we want to improve our situations or we don’t. Seeing as you are currently reading a post about magic (and I am currently writing one) I am going to make the assumption that you do.
And that’s why I really want you to watch this whole video. Click play, go fullscreen and watch.
Get ready to have your brain rocked (legally)!
What did I say? Rocked? Your brain was rocked.
I want to talk about it in detail but, by the same token, I don’t want to give anything away because I know damn well you just scrolled past the video to get to the end of the post.
The questions at the end regarding terrorism dovetail nicely into Black Swan dynamics if you are inclined to take this further.
Which you should.
This stuff isn’t being used enough as far as I can see.