In the decades to come, Putin's actions will be the subject of hundreds of political science PhDs. Most of us cannot see it at the moment because the news 'coverage' manages to avoid quoting any of the words the actors in this game of Risk are actually saying.
Honestly, you are watching a lone superspy single-handedly unravel the Anglo-American archon's vice-grip on the planet. It's currently the greatest show on earth. Depending on how he plays the Greek card, there is a genuine chance peace may break out. Let's look at Russia's so called 'weak' economy:
- The economy is structurally weak but monetarily strong.
- 45% of its GDP is tied to energy exports which is why NATO is collapsing the oil price. This is precisely how they broke the Soviet Union, you will recall.
- However the collapse in the Rouble versus the US dollar more or less balances this out: they are making less in US dollar terms from each barrel of oil, but each dollar buys a lot more Roubles.
- The poverty rate fell from 35% in 2001 to under 10% in 2010. They are on track for 80+% Middle Class by 2020.
- Inflation is running high because the Rouble now buys less food and consumables than it used to because of its collapse against other currencies. Do you know how you 'fix' consumer inflation (which is largely unresponsive to interest rate changes despite what anyone on MSNBC says)?
- You return your currency to a gold standard or at least a fractional version of it. Check this out:
- The two countries lying the most about their gold reserves on this chart are the US (which has significantly less than they claim) and China (which has vast amounts more... enough to put it above Russia).
- There is no precedent for breaking a global fiat monetary system but it is likely that trillions of those dollars that are used in place of gold as foreign currency reserves will return to the US, possibly spiking inflation, definitely spiking interest rates... which would make it impossible for the much of the world to service their US dollar denominated debt... leading to defaults that end up on global banks' books... global banks who will call for yet more bail outs. It is the ultimate red button and crucially, it will benefit the Russian consumer economy more than it will harm it.
- Despite what you hear in the west, Putin has a whole lot more left on his credit card than you would believe. Debt-to-GDP is very low as most of the country's debt is private. The budget deficit will come in around 1%. 1%!
What does someone with an almost-clear credit card do? He goes shopping.
- Greek debt is owned by European/German banks. For most of the last decade, Germany got its house in order by growing the percentage of GDP attributed to exports to around 45%. They accomplished this by providing 'vendor financing' to the countries it sold its Audis to: the Eurozone periphery. So the German fear of a Grexit is that it is German banks that will be left out of pocket and inevitably demanding a bailout from German taxpayers.
- The leverage the Troika has over Greece is what we call 'the abusive husband' approach: If you default on your debts and leave the Euro, who will you get to buy your Drachma bonds? Our banks won't want them.
- Putin will. Putin and China will buy Drachma bonds. And he will sell US dollar reserves to do so. And if Greece needs more, he will put it on his credit card. Why?
- The NATO sanctions against Russia hurt Greece -already fucked- the most in the short term. Other than Europe, Russia was the largest export market for their agricultural products... basically their only remaining export. And Russia needs cheaper food right now.
- Putin has invited Greece to join his nascent Eurasian Union. This will give him and his own version of the EU a beachhead in mainland Europe. A beachhead to run energy pipes through and ship wheat and other commodities through. (Greece and shipping, you see?)
- If Greece leaves and gets a sweet deal, then you can pretty much unravel the entire European Union without firing a single shot because the rest of the periphery will leave. In the medium term, this will result in a Eurasian/EU common economic area connecting a rising China to a wealthy Europe... America's worst nightmare.
France and Germany have worked this out. So they went to see Mr Putin this week without the Americans. The Americans who were calling to arm Ukraine the very same week.
Here's a quote you didn't see in the Guardian in the context of Europe and Russia's future. It's from former French President Sarkozy, who also said that when he was in the top job, he was hamstrung by onerous "NATO" (American) demands.
“We are part of a common civilization with Russia,” said Sarkozy, speaking on Saturday at the congress of the Union for a Popular Movement Party (UMP), which the former president heads. “The interests of the Americans with the Russians are not the interests of Europe and Russia,” he said adding that “we do not want the revival of a Cold War between Europe and Russia."
“Crimea has chosen Russia, and we cannot blame it [for doing so],” he said pointing out that “we must find the means to create a peacekeeping force to protect Russian speakers in Ukraine.”
Concerning Kiev’s hopes of joining the EU in the near future Sarkozy voiced the same position as had been previously expressed by some EU leaders. “It is not destined to join the EU," he said. “Ukraine must preserve its role as a bridge between Europe and Russia.”
Give Putin Crimea -which he never invaded or 'annexed'- or he will pull the plug on the whole Euro project. Which the Europeans want more than keeping America happy... especially given their treatment in recent years.
Cue John 'droopy face' Kerry and Victoria 'fuck the EU' Nuland blubbing and stumbling over words to say that Europe and America are still aligned in their plans even though Europe has said nein/non/nyet to arming the Nazis that Nuland spent billions of US taxpayer dollars installing in Kiev.
The same Ukraine that had its gold stolen from under their own repeatedly-collapsing Nazi government.
... [W]e reported of a strange incident that took place just after the Ukraine presidential coup, namely that according to at least one source, "in a mysterious operation under the cover of night, Ukraine's gold reserves were promptly loaded onboard an unmarked plane, which subsequently took the gold to the US." To wit:
Tonight, around at 2:00 am, an unregistered transport plane took off took off from Boryspil airport. According to Boryspil staff, prior to the plane's appearance, four trucks and two cargo minibuses arrived at the airport all with their license plates missing. Fifteen people in black uniforms, masks and body armor stepped out, some armed with machine guns. These people loaded the plane with more than forty heavy boxes.
After this, several mysterious men arrived and also entered the plane. The loading was carried out in a hurry. After unloading, the plateless cars immediately left the runway, and the plane took off on an emergency basis.
Airport officials who saw this mysterious "special operation" immediately notified the administration of the airport, which however strongly advised them "not to meddle in other people's business."
Later, the editors were called by one of the senior officials of the former Ministry of Income and Fees, who reported that, according to him, tonight on the orders of one of the "new leaders" of Ukraine, all the gold reserves of the Ukraine were taken to the United States.
Needless to say there was no official confirmation of any of this taking place, and in fact our report, in which we mused if the "price of Ukraine's liberation" was the handover of its gold to the Fed at a time when Germany was actively seeking to repatriate its own physical gold located at the bedrock of the NY Fed, led to the usual mainstream media mockery.
In an interview on Ukraine TV, none other than the head of the Ukraine Central Bank made the stunning admission that "in the vaults of the central bank there is almost no gold left. There is a small amount of gold bullion left, but it's just 1% of reserves."
Everyone but John Kerry, the Buzzfeed President and the BBC can see what's happening. France sent its gold to the US in advance of the Nazi invasion. (It was de Gaulle's calls to get it back that began the unravelling of the gold standard, actually.) Look at this wonderful yet harrowing video of a villager standing up to the Nazis coming to her village to draft her men.
We are witnessing a superspy unmake an empire. Give him Crimea or he takes Greece and dominoes down the entire EU, picking off peripheral economies to add to his Eurasian Union. That's quite the bargaining chip.
What does he do with it? He hands it to Greece and steps back. His whole strategy has been to hold while we have blustered about, fucked up and eventually folded. He is the nanny to our Jack Donaghy.
Think Greece won't use the chip? Really?
Guess we're going back to Syria, eh?